What happens when the ocean tips?

The ocean is a key part of the Earth’s climate system. But some ocean systems may undergo large and potentially abrupt changes as the climate warms. These changes can affect far more than ocean circulation itself, with consequences potentially cascading through marine ecosystems and into the societies that depend on them.

OceanNexus investigates these connections.

Our research brings together ocean and climate physics, marine ecology and socio-economic perspectives to better understand how ocean tipping points and extreme events may develop, how their impacts propagate through interconnected systems, and whether we can identify early warning signals before major changes occur.

From ocean physics to society

A change in ocean circulation does not stop with the ocean. Changes in currents, temperature and other physical conditions can alter marine habitats and ecosystems. These ecological changes can, in turn, affect fisheries, coastal communities, economies and the ways societies manage marine resources.

OceanNexus therefore studies tipping points as part of an interconnected ocean–marine ecosystem–society nexus.

Our aim is to trace these connections across disciplines: from changes in the physical ocean, through their effects on marine ecosystems, to the potential consequences for people and society.

What we study

OceanNexus focuses on several major processes and events that could lead to profound changes in the North Atlantic and European seas.

AMOC

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation transports heat, salt and water through the Atlantic Ocean. OceanNexus will investigate its stability, potential tipping behaviour and the consequences of major changes in the circulation.

Subpolar Gyre

The North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre is another important part of the ocean circulation system. We will investigate the possibility and consequences of a substantial slowdown or reorganisation of the gyre.

Marine heatwaves

Periods of exceptionally high ocean temperatures can place marine ecosystems under severe stress. OceanNexus will study how marine heatwaves develop and how their impacts can propagate through ecosystems and society.

Connecting models, observations and disciplines OceanNexus combines advanced climate and ocean modelling with ecosystem models, observations, integrated assessments and new analytical methods.

By bringing expertise from different disciplines together, we aim to better understand not only whether and how ocean systems may tip, but what happens next.